# ML Trend Analysis

**URL:** <https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273>\
**Category:** Elasticsearch\
**Tags:** elastic-stack-machine-learning\
**Created:** [May 10, 2017, 2:56pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273 "2017-05-10T14:56:11Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![crickes](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/user_avatar/discuss.elastic.co/crickes/32/18009_2.png) [@crickes](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/crickes)\
**Post date:** [May 10, 2017, 2:56pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273/1 "2017-05-10T14:56:11Z")

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I'm trying the ML beta on a sample of the kind of data I wish to analyse and track with it. I'm not sure if I've got it set up correctly but I can't see this working properly for the traffic profile.

 ![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/original/3X/1/e/1e78903910fc957e333b2d0e6710f4e4c7eda231.PNG)

I can see how the blue shaded area starts to track the values at the start (which is a weekend), but when we get into the working week, the traffic pattern seems to make the model wildly inaccurate. For example, part way through the week, the model start to accept -100,00 as an acceptable value. I'm hoping we can get this working to track the traffic line very closely, and take into account the drop in traffic levels over the weekend.

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**Author:** ![dmitri](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/user_avatar/discuss.elastic.co/dmitri/32/17997_2.png) [@dmitri](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/dmitri)\
**Post date:** [May 10, 2017, 3:19pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273/2 "2017-05-10T15:19:58Z")

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Hi Steve. The model needs to see 2-3 periods before it detects a periodicity type. For daily periodicity, that means 2-3 days. For weekly periodicity, 2-3 weeks. In your case, we're talking about weekly periodicity (on top of daily periodicity). Could you please feed 3 (or more) weeks of data and see what happens?

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**Author:** ![crickes](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/user_avatar/discuss.elastic.co/crickes/32/18009_2.png) [@crickes](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/crickes)\
**Post date:** [May 10, 2017, 5:26pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273/3 "2017-05-10T17:26:04Z")

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I'll have to get back to you in a couple of weeks time. 🙂

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**Author:** ![system](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/original/3X/1/a/1ac57faf039f6b580b3f104ef42a2a89e41014de.png) [@system](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/system)\
**Post date:** [June 7, 2017, 5:37pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/ml-trend-analysis/85273/4 "2017-06-07T17:37:14Z")

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