# Moving average forcast

**URL:** <https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221>\
**Category:** Elasticsearch\
**Created:** [February 23, 2017, 1:22pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221 "2017-02-23T13:22:49Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![liorg2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ed8c4c/32.png) [@liorg2](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/liorg2)\
**Post date:** [February 23, 2017, 1:22pm UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221/1 "2017-02-23T13:22:49Z")

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this may be a strange question,  
but does the prediction, built in in the moving average models, predict the next _data_ point or the next _moving average_ ? I would like to predict the next data point...

 ![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/original/2X/9/965e610dec2d701f82c8df0f1f6266c9f39e1a1a.png)

in the chart, I have attached, you can see that the moving average (my baseline) is always following after data points (1 day aggregation in this example), and so is the predicted points (starting from the marked point and so on)

\*\* the model settings are as follows:  
{"gap\_policy":"skip","window":100,"predict":10,"settings":{"alpha":0.5,"beta":0.5}}

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**Author:** ![warkolm](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/user_avatar/discuss.elastic.co/warkolm/32/39224_2.png) [@warkolm](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/warkolm)\
**Post date:** [February 24, 2017, 9:34am UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221/2 "2017-02-24T09:34:11Z")

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It'd be the next moving average given that is what the root agg does.  
Mind you that's a guess, I'll see if I can get a definite answer though!

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**Author:** ![liorg2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ed8c4c/32.png) [@liorg2](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/liorg2)\
**Post date:** [February 26, 2017, 9:17am UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221/3 "2017-02-26T09:17:49Z")

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Thanks, i wish I could get official answer from ES team

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**Author:** ![system](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/elastic/original/3X/1/a/1ac57faf039f6b580b3f104ef42a2a89e41014de.png) [@system](https://discuss.elastic.co/u/system)\
**Post date:** [March 26, 2017, 9:18am UTC](https://discuss.elastic.co/t/moving-average-forcast/76221/4 "2017-03-26T09:18:01Z")

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