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If i stop the update process and do forcemerge, if for example the index have 354GB (original size is 250GB) and i forcemerge it, the size go to near 350GB, the process took less than 10 seconds to happen (cpu/io have high usage during that time),
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if i try again, the size stuck on 350GB (cpu/io does not get high) and only after some minuter or hours (cpu/io activity do not get high equal the first time i done forcemerge during that "sleep ES auto-merge" time) the index have some seconds of HIGH cpu/io usage and it merge.
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The full merge (to get back to 250GB) happen in a random time, in a point of time, because when it happens is so fast and consume a lot of io for some seconds, but take too many time to start (and forcemerge do not worked to reduce the size back to 250GB), follow the image of the random automerge:

