ElasticSearch Sizing

I am trying to understand the number of shards that I need to create, primary and replicas.
I have run the following calucation
Total Data (GB)= Raw data (GB) per day * Number of days retained * (Number of replicas + 1)
Total Storage (GB) = Total data (GB) * (1 + 0.15 disk Watermark threshold + 0.1 Margin of error)

The total storage returned is 500 GB

Running the next formulae
Total Data Nodes = ROUNDUP(Total storage (GB) / Memory per data node / Memory:Data ratio)
Gives 2 (1 replica). My node has 64 GB RAM and the JVM 30 GB.
Is that correct or should I simply divide the 500 GB with the max per shard, 50 GB, and have 10 shards?

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