You also have a replica over there, so storage size would be both of them combined, the cat shards api should return some info about shard size usage.
You can also try triggering the rollover api manually with dry run and the same conditions as in your ilm policy, that should tell you which condition was false
I also noticed that if you have multiple primaries this primary index size in ilm uses the size of only one of them to trigger the rollover, that had me a bit confused as well.
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