What happens when all nodes are over water mark for disk based allocation?

My guess is that there would be trouble creating new indices, but would existing indices continue to function as long as there were no allocation events?

Yeah, it won't allocate new shards but won't un-allocate existing ones.

Thanks, Mark.

Is there any setting that will prevent ES from writing to already allocated shards if disk space passes a certain percentage?

Nope.

Thanks for the quick responses