That may very well be the case. What is the specification and size of your cluster? Which version are you using? Is there anything in the logs around those messages?
Have a look at the settings of your indices. I suspect you will find that only indices located on the warm nodes that have been forcemerged are blocked. If that is the case it may be that you have some events coming in 2 days late and you see the error when Logstash tries to index thee into the warm indices, which could happen at any point during the day.
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