Moving average forcast

[liorg2]

this may be a strange question,
but does the prediction, built in in the moving average models, predict the next data point or the next moving average ? I would like to predict the next data point...

in the chart, I have attached, you can see that the moving average (my baseline) is always following after data points (1 day aggregation in this example), and so is the predicted points (starting from the marked point and so on)

** the model settings are as follows:
{"gap_policy":"skip","window":100,"predict":10,"settings":{"alpha":0.5,"beta":0.5}}

[warkolm (Mark Walkom)]

It'd be the next moving average given that is what the root agg does.
Mind you that's a guess, I'll see if I can get a definite answer though!

[liorg2]

Thanks, i wish I could get official answer from ES team